Some 62.6% of Americans (144 million) will host or attend a cookout, barbecue or picnic on July 4

Even in the midst of an economic downturn, Americans plan to show their patriotism and are making big plans for July 4. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2009 Independence Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more people will celebrate the July 4 holiday this year than last year. With the holiday falling on a Saturday, many Americans are planning a memorable celebration: 62.6 percent—or 144 million people— will host or attend a cookout, barbecue or picnic, compared to 61.2 percent (139 million people) in 2008.

The survey also found that more people will attend their local fireworks or community celebration (42.7% vs. 40.2% in 2008). Other popular celebrations include attending a parade (11.5%) or traveling/taking a vacation (11.4%).

“Americans are ready to kick-start summer and celebrate Independence Day,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “Retailers will be stocked with supplies for every celebration, from large family cookouts to trips to the beach.”

When it comes to the patriotic merchandise consumers already own, 121 million Americans own an American flag, 89 million have patriotic apparel, 58 million own decorations and 25 million have bumper stickers or car decals. According to the survey, 14 percent of consumers plan to purchase additional patriotic merchandise this month.

Though gas prices are still far below last year’s levels, a recent uptick in costs is causing some Americans to reconsider their plans. According to the survey, 44.5 percent of Americans will change their Independence Day plans on account of higher gas prices.

“With July 4 falling on Saturday this year, many Americans will use the holiday as the perfect excuse to relax with family and friends,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. “With gas prices on the rise again, some Americans will opt to spend the weekend close to home, taking advantage of neighborhood gatherings and local celebrations.”

About the Survey The NRF 2009 Independence Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey was designed to gauge consumer behavior and shopping trends related to the July 4th holiday. The survey was conducted for NRF by BIGresearch. The poll of 8,635 consumers was conducted from June 2-9, 2009. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.0 percent.

BIGresearch is a consumer market intelligence firm that provides unique consumer insights that are gathered online utilizing very large sample sizes. BIGresearch’s syndicated Consumer Intentions and Actions survey monitors the pulse of more than 8,000 consumers each month to empower its clients with unique insights for identifying opportunities in a fragmented and changing marketplace.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

Two dietary supplements, vitamin D and fish oil, will be tested in a large, government-sponsored study

Two of the most popular and promising dietary supplements — vitamin D and fish oil — will be tested in a large, government-sponsored study to see whether either nutrient can lower a healthy person's risk of getting cancer, heart disease or having a stroke.

It will be one of the first big nutrition studies ever to target a specific racial group — blacks, who will comprise one quarter of the participants.

People with dark skin are unable to make much vitamin D from sunlight, and researchers think this deficiency may help explain why blacks have higher rates of cancer, stroke and heart disease.

"If something as simple as taking a vitamin D pill could help lower these risks and eliminate these health disparities, that would be extraordinarily exciting," said Dr. JoAnn Manson. She and Dr. Julie Buring, of Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, will co-lead the study.

"But we should be cautious before jumping on the bandwagon to take mega-doses of these supplements," Manson warned. "We know from history that many of these nutrients that looked promising in observational studies didn't pan out."

Vitamins C, E, folic acid, beta carotene, selenium and even menopause hormone pills once seemed to lower the risk of cancer or heart disease — until they were tested in big studies that sometimes revealed risks instead of benefits.

In October, the government stopped a big study of vitamin E and selenium pills for prostate cancer prevention after seeing no evidence of benefit and hints of harm.

Vitamin D is one of the last major nutrients to be put to a rigorous test.

For years, evidence has been building that many people are deficient in "the sunshine vitamin." It is tough to get enough from dietary sources like milk and oily fish. Cancer rates are higher in many northern regions where sunlight is weak in the winter, and some studies have found that people with lower blood levels of vitamin D are more likely to develop cancer.

Fish oil, or omega-3 fatty acid, is widely recommended for heart health. However, studies of it so far have mostly involved people who already have heart problems or who eat a lot of fish, such as in Japan. Foods also increasingly are fortified with omega-3, so it is important to establish its safety and benefit.

"Vitamin D and omega-3s have powerful anti-inflammatory effects that may be key factors in preventing many diseases. They may also work through other pathways that influence cancer and cardiovascular risk," Manson said.

However, getting nutrients from a pill is different than getting them from foods, and correcting a deficiency is not the same as healthy people taking large doses from a supplement.

The new study, which will start later this year, will enroll 20,000 people with no history of heart attacks, stroke or a major cancer — women 65 or older and men 60 or older. They will be randomly assigned to take vitamin D, fish oil, both nutrients or dummy pills for five years.

The daily dose of vitamin D will be about 2,000 international units of D-3, also known as cholecalciferol, the most active form. For fish oil, the daily dose will be about one gram — five to 10 times what the average American gets.

Participants' health will be monitored through questionnaires, medical records and in some cases, periodic in-person exams.

"We're hoping to see a result during the trial, that we won't have to wait five years" to find out if supplements help, Manson said.

Researchers also plan to study whether these nutrients help prevent memory loss, depression, diabetes, osteoporosis and other problems, Buring said.

The $20 million study will be sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, with the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute and other federal agencies. Pharmavite LLC of Northridge, Calif., is providing the vitamin D pills, and Ocean Nutrition Canada Ltd. of Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, is providing the omega-3 fish oil capsules.

About 87% of consumers claim they will not stop purchasing organic foods due to the economy

Consumers are still committed to healthy, natural and organic foods, but are changing their buying habits to maintain these priorities during the economic recession. That's according to a recent MamboTrack(TM) quick poll by Mambo Sprouts Marketing, the leader in natural and organic product marketing and promotions. The company surveyed the buying habits of natural and organic product consumers to identify recent changes in organic shopping and eating patterns.

Even with the tight economy, natural and organic consumers remain committed to eating healthy with 9 in 10 (87%) reporting that they were not willing to give this up. A majority (about 55% each) would not forego healthy and eco activities such as natural and organic products, vitamins and supplements and "green" environmentally friendly products.

Those adjusting their organic buying and eating habits (45% of respondents) are frugal shoppers seeking value and ways to purchase organics more economically such as being more selective when buying organics (67%), buying organics on sale (65%), using more coupons (50%), and buying more store brand/private label organics (48%).

Respondents see this change in the way they purchase organics as long term. Most will (52%) or may (32%) continue these new buying habits when the economy improves. The outlook for organic products looks strong, with more than 8 in 10 respondents planning to buy the same amount of organics (46%) or more (36%) when economy improves (1 in 6 were unsure; only 2% will buy less).

Store brand/private label organics remain part of the cost saving strategy with 9 in 10 (88%) buying on a regular (38%) or occasional (50%) basis. One in four (26%) are buying more of these products since the recession started. Grocery staples such as cereal, grains and pasta (80%), dairy (72%), condiments (61%) and household cleaning products (61%) displayed the highest store brand/private label category purchasing.

"For branded organic products, the challenge is to regain market share through brand building initiatives such as layered promotions, education regarding brand values and coupons so that they are well positioned post-recession," said Matthew Saline, CEO for Mambo Sprouts Marketing.

Cheese Whizzes

Some retirees open a bed and breakfast, collect antiques or spend their days on the tennis court.

Barbara Hanley is making cheese.

“My friends say, ‘You’re doing what?’ ” says the former commercial real-estate consultant. For the past few years, Ms. Hanley, 60 years old, has been a partner in Shy Brothers Farm, a small outfit in southeastern Massachusetts that is turning milk into thimble-shaped pieces of cheese.

“They think it’s hysterical I’m doing cheese,” says Ms. Hanley, who spent most of her career in the South appraising golf-course-development projects for investors and other clients.

To be specific, Ms. Hanley is an “artisan cheese maker.” Artisan cheese, unlike the mass-produced variety, is made in small batches using traditional methods and lots of handcrafting.

Growing Culture

It’s a product, and a pursuit, that’s becoming increasingly popular. There are now at least 400 small-scale producers nationwide, up from about 75 in 1990, says Jeffrey Roberts, author of the “Atlas of American Artisan Cheese.” The growth reflects a change in consumer taste to more flavorful, premium-priced cheese, a buy-local-food movement, and a proliferation of farmers’ markets and other outlets for local products.

“A lot of people think of opening a winery. Now, some of us dream of making cheese,” says Alan J. Glustoff, 55, a Port Chester, N.Y., food-industry veteran who began 5 Spoke Creamery, a small kosher cheese company, two years ago.

Some cheese makers buy milk from farmers. Others have their own land, animals and milk supply. They buy equipment, gather and test recipes, and learn the regulatory requirements for cheese.

And then comes the hard part: making the cheese. The process is highly exacting and requires meticulous sanitation to minimize the danger of producing cheese that is unsavory, if not unsafe. Cheese makers say they spend as much time cleaning as making their food. “Many people go into it starry-eyed, but they very quickly learn this is a lot of work,” says Mr. Roberts.

Still, it’s a pursuit that has major appeal. Della Williams, 65, a semiretired neurologist, says she finds great joy in the animals and the act of cheese making. She and her husband, Jon Dorman, 73, a retired neurologist, operate Sleepygoat Farm, a small goat farm and creamery in Pelham, N.C. The goats, Ms. Williams says, “jump around, cavort. They enjoy life.” And turning milk into cheese “just seems to me like a miracle,” she says.

Cheese makers start by warming milk and adding culture (another word for bacteria) and rennet (an enzyme) to break down the chemical reactions that keep protein, fat and minerals suspended in the milk. They separate the resulting curds and whey, cut the curds into small pieces (which makes it easier to extract moisture) and then press the curds into molds. Aging boosts the flavor and complexity.

All the while, they must pay careful attention to temperature and acidity levels and guard against pathogens, says Paul Kindstedt, a professor of food science at the University of Vermont. Milk characteristics change markedly throughout the year, he adds, so producers must adjust their procedures to make a consistent cheese.

Cheese makers typically spend about $150,000 to set up a cheese room and buy the stainless-steel vats, tables and mixing bowls. That’s on top of the cost of buying the farm and barns. Artisan cheese has been selling for about $20 a pound at retail. Producers don’t sell enough cheese to get rich, but the extra money helps pay the farm bills.

Barbara Levin, 68, a retired physical therapist, and her husband, Harvey Levin, 63, a retired mechanical engineer, run Hope Farm Sheep Cheese in northern Vermont. Ms. Levin says sales of the 2,700 pounds of cheese they make each year help them delay tapping their retirement savings.

“It’s very satisfying to get through a lambing season with a barn full of healthy animals, make a product that is well-received, and live in probably one of the most beautiful parts of Vermont,” Ms. Levin says.

Brand New Bag

American artisan cheese began to take hold in the 1980s. In the past decade, workshops, Web sites and courses that cater to would-be cheese makers have multiplied. Some people buy kits and learn to make cheese in their kitchen sinks. Others take courses offered by cheese makers or schools.

Ms. Hanley and her husband, Leo Brooks, got into the cheese business after they moved to Westport Point, Mass., an old whaling village, in 1995. They were alarmed that local dairy farmers were struggling with low milk prices and selling their land to developers. To preserve the rural landscape, Ms. Hanley worked with one nearby dairy farmer, Karl Santos, and his three brothers, to convert some milk production to making cheese, which pays significantly better than fluid milk.

She and Mr. Santos, 45, went to France in 2006 to visit small cheese makers and learn their craft. They brought back a recipe for a bite-size cheese they call Hannahbells in honor of the Santos brothers’ mother. And they called the business Shy Brothers, for the siblings’ demeanor.

Mr. Santos does most of the cheese making, including pasteurizing the milk and separating the curds and whey. Ms. Hanley helps him, but mainly markets the cheese. Mr. Brooks, 62, a Continental Airlines pilot, helps deliver the cheese to restaurants in Rhode Island.

There can be luck involved, says Barbara Jenness, 61, a retired veterinary technician, who now runs a small goat-cheese business in Byron Center, Mich. At her retirement party in 2007 at a tapas restaurant in nearby Grand Rapids, a waitress asked who was retiring. “I am,” Ms. Jenness recalls answering. “And it is hardly retiring. I am going to be a cheese maker.” The waitress took her card and said the chef would contact her. The restaurant, as it turns out, has been one of her best customers.

Cost pressure is the biggest factor driving manufacturing companies to be more responsive

In a recent survey Hitachi Consulting and AMR Research heard from manufacturers that reducing costs is the chief motivator to improving responsiveness, but success is limited due to the age-old resistance to change and company culture.

Survey responses from more than 160 manufacturers across eight industry segments show that most companies understand the need to respond to shorter product lifecycles, increased customer expectations, fluctuating inventory levels and changing costs - what Hitachi Consulting calls Building the Market Responsive CompanySM. But few recognize the impact of that strategy on the manufacturing infrastructure, or the trade-offs needed between efficiency and responsiveness, according to Tim Vaio, Leader of the Industrial Products group for Hitachi Consulting, the IT and consulting company of Hitachi Ltd.

The 2009 Supply Chain Responsiveness Survey was conducted to help companies better understand the business processes and technologies needed to become more responsive to market changes, and to learn which supply chain business practices lead to real business benefits. The study also examined how companies detect change, the levers they use to respond to change, and the barriers to being responsive.

The research shows a 1 percent improvement in return on assets for every four years of investment in supply chain excellence. Other findings include:

• Demand variability is still impacting forecast accuracy
• Cost pressure is the biggest factor driving companies to be more responsive
• Despite years of investments, order lead times have not improved
• Complexity is increasing in the form of increased outsourced volumes, item complexity and SKU proliferation

"One of the biggest surprises in these results," said Vaio, "is that respondents said the top barrier to improving responsiveness is their own culture. We believe this indicates that most performance measures are inhibiting change by rewarding siloed behavior. To become responsive companies need to take a holistic approach across all supply chain functions and develop processes and metrics that reward end-to-end supply chain success."

"Cracking the nut requires a focus in three areas: culture, right-sizing complexity, and rethinking financial reward systems. Culture is the biggest barrier to achieving agility," said Lora Cecere, Vice President of Value Services at AMR Research, in a recent article A Four-Step Program for Supply Chain Agility. Cecere led the research project at AMR Research.

"With ever-increasing volumes of data, a global economy, demanding customer requirements, focus on cost reductions and ever-more complex business processes, the goal of remaining Market Responsive is a significant one," he said. "The wakeup call for everyone who views this data is that company culture is still a huge factor in adopting, or rejecting, the customer-first mindset across the supply chain. No matter how successful you may be at driving costs down, the companies having real success over the long term are those focused on customer satisfaction," said Vaio.

Tim Vaio recently was named to the Supply & Demand Chain Executive 2009 Pros to Know listing following the 2008 recognition of Hitachi Consulting on the Supply & Demand Chain 100 as a services provider "at the forefront of innovation." Learn more about Building the Market Responsive CompanySM and Responsive Asset Management at www.hitachiconsulting.com.