Friday, June 26, 2009

Some 62.6% of Americans (144 million) will host or attend a cookout, barbecue or picnic on July 4

Even in the midst of an economic downturn, Americans plan to show their patriotism and are making big plans for July 4. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2009 Independence Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more people will celebrate the July 4 holiday this year than last year. With the holiday falling on a Saturday, many Americans are planning a memorable celebration: 62.6 percent—or 144 million people— will host or attend a cookout, barbecue or picnic, compared to 61.2 percent (139 million people) in 2008.

The survey also found that more people will attend their local fireworks or community celebration (42.7% vs. 40.2% in 2008). Other popular celebrations include attending a parade (11.5%) or traveling/taking a vacation (11.4%).

“Americans are ready to kick-start summer and celebrate Independence Day,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin. “Retailers will be stocked with supplies for every celebration, from large family cookouts to trips to the beach.”

When it comes to the patriotic merchandise consumers already own, 121 million Americans own an American flag, 89 million have patriotic apparel, 58 million own decorations and 25 million have bumper stickers or car decals. According to the survey, 14 percent of consumers plan to purchase additional patriotic merchandise this month.

Though gas prices are still far below last year’s levels, a recent uptick in costs is causing some Americans to reconsider their plans. According to the survey, 44.5 percent of Americans will change their Independence Day plans on account of higher gas prices.

“With July 4 falling on Saturday this year, many Americans will use the holiday as the perfect excuse to relax with family and friends,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. “With gas prices on the rise again, some Americans will opt to spend the weekend close to home, taking advantage of neighborhood gatherings and local celebrations.”

About the Survey The NRF 2009 Independence Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey was designed to gauge consumer behavior and shopping trends related to the July 4th holiday. The survey was conducted for NRF by BIGresearch. The poll of 8,635 consumers was conducted from June 2-9, 2009. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.0 percent.

BIGresearch is a consumer market intelligence firm that provides unique consumer insights that are gathered online utilizing very large sample sizes. BIGresearch’s syndicated Consumer Intentions and Actions survey monitors the pulse of more than 8,000 consumers each month to empower its clients with unique insights for identifying opportunities in a fragmented and changing marketplace.

The National Retail Federation is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services. NRF represents an industry with more than 1.6 million U.S. retail establishments, more than 24 million employees - about one in five American workers - and 2008 sales of $4.6 trillion. As the industry umbrella group, NRF also represents more than 100 state, national and international retail associations. www.nrf.com.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Two dietary supplements, vitamin D and fish oil, will be tested in a large, government-sponsored study

Two of the most popular and promising dietary supplements — vitamin D and fish oil — will be tested in a large, government-sponsored study to see whether either nutrient can lower a healthy person's risk of getting cancer, heart disease or having a stroke.

It will be one of the first big nutrition studies ever to target a specific racial group — blacks, who will comprise one quarter of the participants.

People with dark skin are unable to make much vitamin D from sunlight, and researchers think this deficiency may help explain why blacks have higher rates of cancer, stroke and heart disease.

"If something as simple as taking a vitamin D pill could help lower these risks and eliminate these health disparities, that would be extraordinarily exciting," said Dr. JoAnn Manson. She and Dr. Julie Buring, of Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, will co-lead the study.

"But we should be cautious before jumping on the bandwagon to take mega-doses of these supplements," Manson warned. "We know from history that many of these nutrients that looked promising in observational studies didn't pan out."

Vitamins C, E, folic acid, beta carotene, selenium and even menopause hormone pills once seemed to lower the risk of cancer or heart disease — until they were tested in big studies that sometimes revealed risks instead of benefits.

In October, the government stopped a big study of vitamin E and selenium pills for prostate cancer prevention after seeing no evidence of benefit and hints of harm.

Vitamin D is one of the last major nutrients to be put to a rigorous test.

For years, evidence has been building that many people are deficient in "the sunshine vitamin." It is tough to get enough from dietary sources like milk and oily fish. Cancer rates are higher in many northern regions where sunlight is weak in the winter, and some studies have found that people with lower blood levels of vitamin D are more likely to develop cancer.

Fish oil, or omega-3 fatty acid, is widely recommended for heart health. However, studies of it so far have mostly involved people who already have heart problems or who eat a lot of fish, such as in Japan. Foods also increasingly are fortified with omega-3, so it is important to establish its safety and benefit.

"Vitamin D and omega-3s have powerful anti-inflammatory effects that may be key factors in preventing many diseases. They may also work through other pathways that influence cancer and cardiovascular risk," Manson said.

However, getting nutrients from a pill is different than getting them from foods, and correcting a deficiency is not the same as healthy people taking large doses from a supplement.

The new study, which will start later this year, will enroll 20,000 people with no history of heart attacks, stroke or a major cancer — women 65 or older and men 60 or older. They will be randomly assigned to take vitamin D, fish oil, both nutrients or dummy pills for five years.

The daily dose of vitamin D will be about 2,000 international units of D-3, also known as cholecalciferol, the most active form. For fish oil, the daily dose will be about one gram — five to 10 times what the average American gets.

Participants' health will be monitored through questionnaires, medical records and in some cases, periodic in-person exams.

"We're hoping to see a result during the trial, that we won't have to wait five years" to find out if supplements help, Manson said.

Researchers also plan to study whether these nutrients help prevent memory loss, depression, diabetes, osteoporosis and other problems, Buring said.

The $20 million study will be sponsored by the National Cancer Institute, with the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute and other federal agencies. Pharmavite LLC of Northridge, Calif., is providing the vitamin D pills, and Ocean Nutrition Canada Ltd. of Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, is providing the omega-3 fish oil capsules.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

About 87% of consumers claim they will not stop purchasing organic foods due to the economy

Consumers are still committed to healthy, natural and organic foods, but are changing their buying habits to maintain these priorities during the economic recession. That's according to a recent MamboTrack(TM) quick poll by Mambo Sprouts Marketing, the leader in natural and organic product marketing and promotions. The company surveyed the buying habits of natural and organic product consumers to identify recent changes in organic shopping and eating patterns.

Even with the tight economy, natural and organic consumers remain committed to eating healthy with 9 in 10 (87%) reporting that they were not willing to give this up. A majority (about 55% each) would not forego healthy and eco activities such as natural and organic products, vitamins and supplements and "green" environmentally friendly products.

Those adjusting their organic buying and eating habits (45% of respondents) are frugal shoppers seeking value and ways to purchase organics more economically such as being more selective when buying organics (67%), buying organics on sale (65%), using more coupons (50%), and buying more store brand/private label organics (48%).

Respondents see this change in the way they purchase organics as long term. Most will (52%) or may (32%) continue these new buying habits when the economy improves. The outlook for organic products looks strong, with more than 8 in 10 respondents planning to buy the same amount of organics (46%) or more (36%) when economy improves (1 in 6 were unsure; only 2% will buy less).

Store brand/private label organics remain part of the cost saving strategy with 9 in 10 (88%) buying on a regular (38%) or occasional (50%) basis. One in four (26%) are buying more of these products since the recession started. Grocery staples such as cereal, grains and pasta (80%), dairy (72%), condiments (61%) and household cleaning products (61%) displayed the highest store brand/private label category purchasing.

"For branded organic products, the challenge is to regain market share through brand building initiatives such as layered promotions, education regarding brand values and coupons so that they are well positioned post-recession," said Matthew Saline, CEO for Mambo Sprouts Marketing.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Cheese Whizzes

Some retirees open a bed and breakfast, collect antiques or spend their days on the tennis court.

Barbara Hanley is making cheese.

“My friends say, ‘You’re doing what?’” says the former commercial real-estate consultant. For the past few years, Ms. Hanley, 60 years old, has been a partner in Shy Brothers Farm, a small outfit in southeastern Massachusetts that is turning milk into thimble-shaped pieces of cheese.

“They think it’s hysterical I’m doing cheese,” says Ms. Hanley, who spent most of her career in the South appraising golf-course-development projects for investors and other clients.

To be specific, Ms. Hanley is an “artisan cheese maker.” Artisan cheese, unlike the mass-produced variety, is made in small batches using traditional methods and lots of handcrafting.

Growing Culture

It’s a product, and a pursuit, that’s becoming increasingly popular. There are now at least 400 small-scale producers nationwide, up from about 75 in 1990, says Jeffrey Roberts, author of the “Atlas of American Artisan Cheese.” The growth reflects a change in consumer taste to more flavorful, premium-priced cheese, a buy-local-food movement, and a proliferation of farmers’ markets and other outlets for local products.

“A lot of people think of opening a winery. Now, some of us dream of making cheese,” says Alan J. Glustoff, 55, a Port Chester, N.Y., food-industry veteran who began 5 Spoke Creamery, a small kosher cheese company, two years ago.

Some cheese makers buy milk from farmers. Others have their own land, animals and milk supply. They buy equipment, gather and test recipes, and learn the regulatory requirements for cheese.

And then comes the hard part: making the cheese. The process is highly exacting and requires meticulous sanitation to minimize the danger of producing cheese that is unsavory, if not unsafe. Cheese makers say they spend as much time cleaning as making their food. “Many people go into it starry-eyed, but they very quickly learn this is a lot of work,” says Mr. Roberts.

Still, it’s a pursuit that has major appeal. Della Williams, 65, a semiretired neurologist, says she finds great joy in the animals and the act of cheese making. She and her husband, Jon Dorman, 73, a retired neurologist, operate Sleepygoat Farm, a small goat farm and creamery in Pelham, N.C. The goats, Ms. Williams says, “jump around, cavort. They enjoy life.” And turning milk into cheese “just seems to me like a miracle,” she says.

Cheese makers start by warming milk and adding culture (another word for bacteria) and rennet (an enzyme) to break down the chemical reactions that keep protein, fat and minerals suspended in the milk. They separate the resulting curds and whey, cut the curds into small pieces (which makes it easier to extract moisture) and then press the curds into molds. Aging boosts the flavor and complexity.

All the while, they must pay careful attention to temperature and acidity levels and guard against pathogens, says Paul Kindstedt, a professor of food science at the University of Vermont. Milk characteristics change markedly throughout the year, he adds, so producers must adjust their procedures to make a consistent cheese.

Cheese makers typically spend about $150,000 to set up a cheese room and buy the stainless-steel vats, tables and mixing bowls. That’s on top of the cost of buying the farm and barns. Artisan cheese has been selling for about $20 a pound at retail. Producers don’t sell enough cheese to get rich, but the extra money helps pay the farm bills.

Barbara Levin, 68, a retired physical therapist, and her husband, Harvey Levin, 63, a retired mechanical engineer, run Hope Farm Sheep Cheese in northern Vermont. Ms. Levin says sales of the 2,700 pounds of cheese they make each year help them delay tapping their retirement savings.

“It’s very satisfying to get through a lambing season with a barn full of healthy animals, make a product that is well-received, and live in probably one of the most beautiful parts of Vermont,” Ms. Levin says.

Brand New Bag

American artisan cheese began to take hold in the 1980s. In the past decade, workshops, Web sites and courses that cater to would-be cheese makers have multiplied. Some people buy kits and learn to make cheese in their kitchen sinks. Others take courses offered by cheese makers or schools.

Ms. Hanley and her husband, Leo Brooks, got into the cheese business after they moved to Westport Point, Mass., an old whaling village, in 1995. They were alarmed that local dairy farmers were struggling with low milk prices and selling their land to developers. To preserve the rural landscape, Ms. Hanley worked with one nearby dairy farmer, Karl Santos, and his three brothers, to convert some milk production to making cheese, which pays significantly better than fluid milk.

She and Mr. Santos, 45, went to France in 2006 to visit small cheese makers and learn their craft. They brought back a recipe for a bite-size cheese they call Hannahbells in honor of the Santos brothers’ mother. And they called the business Shy Brothers, for the siblings’ demeanor.

Mr. Santos does most of the cheese making, including pasteurizing the milk and separating the curds and whey. Ms. Hanley helps him, but mainly markets the cheese. Mr. Brooks, 62, a Continental Airlines pilot, helps deliver the cheese to restaurants in Rhode Island.

There can be luck involved, says Barbara Jenness, 61, a retired veterinary technician, who now runs a small goat-cheese business in Byron Center, Mich. At her retirement party in 2007 at a tapas restaurant in nearby Grand Rapids, a waitress asked who was retiring. “I am,” Ms. Jenness recalls answering. “And it is hardly retiring. I am going to be a cheese maker.” The waitress took her card and said the chef would contact her. The restaurant, as it turns out, has been one of her best customers.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Cost pressure is the biggest factor driving manufacturing companies to be more responsive

In a recent survey Hitachi Consulting and AMR Research heard from manufacturers that reducing costs is the chief motivator to improving responsiveness, but success is limited due to the age-old resistance to change and company culture.

Survey responses from more than 160 manufacturers across eight industry segments show that most companies understand the need to respond to shorter product lifecycles, increased customer expectations, fluctuating inventory levels and changing costs - what Hitachi Consulting calls Building the Market Responsive CompanySM. But few recognize the impact of that strategy on the manufacturing infrastructure, or the trade-offs needed between efficiency and responsiveness, according to Tim Vaio, Leader of the Industrial Products group for Hitachi Consulting, the IT and consulting company of Hitachi Ltd.

The 2009 Supply Chain Responsiveness Survey was conducted to help companies better understand the business processes and technologies needed to become more responsive to market changes, and to learn which supply chain business practices lead to real business benefits. The study also examined how companies detect change, the levers they use to respond to change, and the barriers to being responsive.

The research shows a 1 percent improvement in return on assets for every four years of investment in supply chain excellence. Other findings include:

• Demand variability is still impacting forecast accuracy
• Cost pressure is the biggest factor driving companies to be more responsive
• Despite years of investments, order lead times have not improved
• Complexity is increasing in the form of increased outsourced volumes, item complexity and SKU proliferation

"One of the biggest surprises in these results," said Vaio, "is that respondents said the top barrier to improving responsiveness is their own culture. We believe this indicates that most performance measures are inhibiting change by rewarding siloed behavior. To become responsive companies need to take a holistic approach across all supply chain functions and develop processes and metrics that reward end-to-end supply chain success."

"Cracking the nut requires a focus in three areas: culture, right-sizing complexity, and rethinking financial reward systems. Culture is the biggest barrier to achieving agility," said Lora Cecere, Vice President of Value Services at AMR Research, in a recent article A Four-Step Program for Supply Chain Agility. Cecere led the research project at AMR Research.

"With ever-increasing volumes of data, a global economy, demanding customer requirements, focus on cost reductions and ever-more complex business processes, the goal of remaining Market Responsive is a significant one," he said. "The wakeup call for everyone who views this data is that company culture is still a huge factor in adopting, or rejecting, the customer-first mindset across the supply chain. No matter how successful you may be at driving costs down, the companies having real success over the long term are those focused on customer satisfaction," said Vaio.

Tim Vaio recently was named to the Supply & Demand Chain Executive 2009 Pros to Know listing following the 2008 recognition of Hitachi Consulting on the Supply & Demand Chain 100 as a services provider "at the forefront of innovation." Learn more about Building the Market Responsive CompanySM and Responsive Asset Management at www.hitachiconsulting.com.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Iced coffee passed iced tea in sales as a breakfast drink at restaurants

Joe on the rocks — aka iced coffee — may be the summer of 2009's hottest beverage.

Perhaps no one knows that better than convenience kingpin 7-Eleven, which, for the first time, is rolling it out nationwide at 5,000 self-service beverage counters. Also catching the iced-coffee wave big time: McDonald's, Starbucks, Dunkin' Donuts and Cold Stone Creamery, which all are unleashing various iced-coffee products or promotions this summer.

Iced coffee has gotten so popular in the past year, it's passed iced tea in sales as a breakfast drink at restaurants, says NPD Group. The number of morning meals that included iced coffee has more than doubled over the past five years from 2% in 2004 to 4.6% through February, NPD reports. "It's a new version of caffeine," says NPD consumer guru Harry Balzer. "We can never get enough caffeine."

Among iced coffee's biggest fans: women and teenage girls. Teens thrive on the hit from the caffeine while many women gravitate to iced coffee's aura of being lower in calories.

Teen girls are 84% more likely to have iced coffee than the average American, says Balzer. And women 18 to 34 are 68% more likely. "This is clearly a female drink," he says.

Which is music to 7-Eleven's ears. With a customer base that skews heavily male, it's a chance to draw young females. "That's not where 7-Eleven is traditionally strong," says Jay Wilkins, cold beverage brand manager. "It's a new customer for us."
Others brewing up iced coffee:

•McDonald's.

In the midst of rolling out its McCafé coffee concept, McDonald's this summer is zeroing in on iced coffee, which has seen double-digit sales growth, says Neil Golden, chief marketing officer. Last month, McDonald's aired its first national ads for iced coffee. This summer, to promote new mocha drinks, it will give out samples of iced or hot mocha every Monday from July 13 through Aug. 3.

•Cold Stone.

In April, Cold Stone Creamery began selling iced coffee and blended coffee for the first time, in five flavors. The move caters to its target customer: women 24 to 48, says Dan Beem, president. It's a response to groups who come in for ice cream, then go to nearby cafes for iced or blended coffees. Now, he says, they can get it all at Cold Stone. He expects cold coffee drinks to soon account for 4% of sales.

•Dunkin' Donuts.

The company is doling out free cups of iced or hot coffee to folks who buy a pound of coffee, says Scott Hudler, brand marketing chief.
•Starbucks. Starbucks is selling 16-ounce iced coffee for $1.95 through June, a savings of about 45 cents in most markets.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Coffee competition

McDonald's gains ground from rivals with marketing blitz of McCafé brand
t’s cornered the market on Big Macs, fries, and shakes. And now McDonald’s is riding a massive marketing campaign to make gastronomic gains in premium coffee.

Not only has the Golden Arches stolen share from java leader Starbucks as the place most preferred by coffee drinkers, but McDonald’s has also dislodged Dunkin’ Donuts from its second-place spot, according to the May 2009 survey by BIGResearch of more than 8,000 consumers.

McDonald’s is “like a 9,000-pound gorilla,’’ said Dennis Lombardi, executive vice president of food service strategies for WD Partners, a restaurant and retail design and development consultancy. “They have made a very strong push to build share with its McCafé brand and to show it is an alternative to coffeehouses.’’

Free trials and slashed prices at both McDonald’s and Starbucks in recent months also have put increased pressure on Canton-based Dunkin’ Donuts, marking one of the fiercest stretches in the java war. The 7-Eleven convenience store chain also jumped into the fray with its recent introduction of iced coffee. And although Starbucks has shuttered shops across the country, the Seattle-based giant still managed to unseat Dunkin’ Donuts, which is in the midst of a nationwide expansion, as the best coffee in Zagat’s 2009 Fast Food Survey of more than 6,000 people.

“We’ve obviously had some kind of competitive onslaught from McDonald’s and Starbucks,’’ said Nigel Travis, the new chief executive of Dunkin’ Brands Inc. “But we seem to be withstanding that well.’’

Dunkin’ is a private company and does not release sales or other financial details. But Travis said the two coffee competitors have made the chain even sharper on pricing across food and beverage categories, including the recent launch of 99 cent lattes in New York.

“The real question is whether McDonald’s can sustain the kind of focus they’ve had for the last two months, putting nearly $100 million behind the coffee push,’’ Travis said.

“They can’t promote coffee forever because they’ve got lots of other products to focus on.’’

A McDonald’s spokeswoman, Danya Proud, said the McCafé advertising campaign, featuring premium coffees, espressos, and other specialty drinks, was one of the company’s biggest promotions since the 1970s.

“Coffee continues to be a significant opportunity for McDonald’s,’’ Proud said. “We will continue to see a heavy promotion of our new McCafé through the summer.’’
Meanwhile, Starbucks is ramping up its efforts to woo back customers by grinding beans each time a new pot of coffee is brewed, instead of grinding coffee only in the morning. Last month, the company also launched a marketing campaign promoting the quality of its coffee and values behind the brand. Additionally, Starbucks teamed up with MSNBC to sponsor its morning news program.

With the java wars intensifying in a weak economic environment, Lombardi said Dunkin’ needs to improve its consumer experience, from the look of the stores to the way customers are treated. And it appears Dunkin’ is trying to make some headway by stealing top human resources executives, including Christine Deputy from Starbucks, of course.

“Dunkin’ needs to step up on all levels and fire back at its competitors,’’ Lombardi said.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Successful Weight Loss with Dieting is Linked to Vitamin D Levels

Vitamin D levels in the body at the start of a low-calorie diet predict weight loss success, a new study found. The results, which suggest a possible role for vitamin D in weight loss, were presented at The Endocrine Society’s 91st Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C.

“Vitamin D deficiency is associated with obesity, but it is not clear if inadequate vitamin D causes obesity or the other way around,” said the study’s lead author, Shalamar Sibley, MD, MPH, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Minnesota.

In this study, the authors attempted to determine whether baseline vitamin D levels before calorie restriction affect subsequent weight loss. They measured circulating blood levels of vitamin D in 38 overweight men and women before and after the subjects followed a diet plan for 11 weeks consisting of 750 calories a day fewer than their estimated total needs. Subjects also had their fat distribution measured with DXA (bone densitometry) scans.

On average, subjects had vitamin D levels that many experts would consider to be in the insufficient range, according to Sibley. However, the authors found that baseline, or pre-diet, vitamin D levels predicted weight loss in a linear relationship. For every increase of 1 ng/mL in level of 25-hydroxycholecalciferol—the precursor form of vitamin D and a commonly used indicator of vitamin D status—subjects ended up losing almost a half pound (0.196 kg) more on their calorie-restricted diet. For each 1-ng/mL increase in the active or “hormonal” form of vitamin D (1,25-dihydroxycholecalciferol), subjects lost nearly one-quarter pound (0.107 kg) more.

Additionally, higher baseline vitamin D levels (both the precursor and active forms) predicted greater loss of abdominal fat.

“Our results suggest the possibility that the addition of vitamin D to a reduced-calorie diet will lead to better weight loss,” Sibley said.

She cautioned, however, that more research is needed. “Our findings,” she said, “need to be followed up by the right kind of controlled clinical trial to determine if there is a role for vitamin D supplementation in helping people lose weight when they attempt to cut back on what they eat.”

The National Institutes of Health, the University of Minnesota, and the Pennock Family Endowment at the University of Minnesota funded this study.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

About 42% of Americans claim steak is the best dish for Dad on Father's Day

Barbecue Spare Ribs and Burgers finish second and third

Grilled steak and barbecue ribs are the sure fire winners for a perfect meal for Dad, according to a new poll conducted by the American Meat Institute. More than four in ten (42 percent) Americans chose steak and 14 percent chose barbecue ribs as the best dishes for dad on Father's Day.

According to the poll of 1,000 Americans on May 16, hamburgers (13 percent) rounded out the top three meals. Meat dishes dominated the top picks, while veggie burgers were selected by just 2 percent of respondents. Other meat picks that Dads love include: barbecue chicken, grilled pork chops and grilled lamb chops.

In an effort to ensure a happy Father's Day, AMI today released new recipes and grilling tips guaranteed to satisfy hungry Dad. The package features recipes for classic Grilled Pork Spareribs, Spicy Lime Glazed Pork Chops, Grilled Chutney Glazed Pork Tenderloin, Greek Lamb Burgers and Italian Beef Kebabs. The package also contains a can't miss guide to steak grilling, including tips for seasoning and a time and temperature chart to help grill Dad's steak just the way he likes it.

CHART Red-Hot Charcoal Preheated oven broiler
2" - 3" from heat source

Thickness Doneness First After First After
Side Turning Side Turning

3/4" Rare 4 minutes 2 minutes 5 minutes 4 minutes
Medium 5 minutes 3 minutes 7 minutes 5 minutes
Well 7 minutes 5 minutes 10 minutes 8 minutes

1" Rare 5 minutes 3 minutes 6 minutes 5 minutes
Medium 6 minutes 4 minutes 8 minutes 6 minutes
Well 8 minutes 6 minutes 11 minutes 9 minutes

1 1/4" Rare 5 minutes 4 minutes 7 minutes 5 minutes
Medium 7 minutes 5 minutes 8 minutes 7 minutes
Well 9 minutes 7 minutes 12 minutes 10 minutes

1 1/2" Rare 6 minutes 4 minutes 7 minutes 6 minutes
Medium 7 minutes 6 minutes 9 minutes 7 minutes
Well 10 minutes 8 minutes 13 minutes 11 minutes

1 3/4" Rare 7 minutes 5 minutes 8 minutes 7 minutes
Medium 8 minutes 7 minutes 9 minutes 8 minutes
Well 11 minutes 9 minutes 14 minutes 12 minutes


Courtesy Omaha Steakshttp://ow.ly/ebFf


"For those who aim to please Dad and Grandpa on June 21, our poll results and accompanying recipes will help you do just that," said Janet Riley, senior vice president of public affairs and member services at AMI. "Father's Day falls on the first day of summer this year, making it a doubly perfect day to fire up the grill and feed Dad his favorite foods."

The steak grilling tips and five recipes can be found on AMI's Meat and Poultry Nutrition Web site: http://ow.ly/eef6.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Approximately 87% of Americans are concerned about the nutritional content

Almost half (46 percent) of Americans are reluctant to spend more on healthier versions of food, the United Soybean Board's (USB) 2009 Consumer Attitudes about Nutrition survey reveals. This is not for lack of interest: Of those not willing to spend more, 52 percent confirm the reason is financial. However, nutritious foods don't always come with a hefty price tag. Nutrient-dense soyfoods are affordable and allow Americans to eat healthy for less.

According to the sixteenth annual research study, 87 percent of Americans express concern about the nutritional content of the food they eat, a number that reflects Americans' interest in healthier foods. While consumers juggle nutrition and economic value, 88 percent still consider nutrition important when purchasing foods at the grocery store.

Within price constraints, Americans are taking greater control of their health by choosing functional foods that provide specific health benefits. According to Packaged Facts' Functional Foods and Beverages study, U.S. retail sales for functional foods totaled $31 billion in 2008, an increase from $26.9 billion in 2006. Soymilk faired especially well in sales.

USB's study demonstrates the heightened awareness of soyfoods' health benefits, as 84 percent of Americans rate soy as healthy, up 25 percentage points over the last 12 years. In fact, one-third of Americans purchase foods specifically because they contain soy.

"Soy products are an ideal option for those seeking budget-friendly meals. For example, a block of tofu can star as the protein in a family meal for less than $2, and soybean oil costs one-quarter of the price of some other healthy oils," said Lisa Kelly, MPH, RD of the United Soybean Board.

Americans' Awareness of Soyfoods

Americans indicate they seek out soy products because they are low in fat, are good sources of protein, reduce the risk of heart disease and lower cholesterol.
Eighty-four percent of Americans recognize soybean oil as very or somewhat healthy. Soybean oil contains zero grams of trans fat, which can often be a deterrent for many consumers at the grocery store. In fact, 59 percent say they would be more likely to buy a product that they currently purchase if the food company reformulated the product to eliminate trans fats. New varieties of soybean oil are giving food companies more ways to do just that.

Awareness and usage of soy protein products continues to climb. Soymilk is most popular, with nearly one-quarter of Americans reporting they drink it regularly. According to Mintel's Soy-based Food and Drink report, soymilk sales grew 61 percent from 2003 to 2008. Emerging soyfoods have also sparked consumers' interest. Today, 17 percent of Americans have tried edamame (young green soybeans) at least once, a significant increase from three percent in 2000.

USB's 16th annual Consumer Attitudes about Nutrition was conducted by an independent research firm. The study includes 1,009 random online surveys conducted in January 2009, providing a sample that is consistent the total U.S. population. The study's margin of error is +/- 1.9 to 3.1 percent, with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The United Soybean Board is a farmer-led organization comprised of 68 farmer-directors. For more health information about soy, visit SoyConnection.com.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Some 91% of shoppers claim they will keep buying private label products after the recession ends

New consumer polling data shows that an overwhelming majority of U.S. supermarket shoppers will continue purchasing store brand products after the recession is over.
A poll conducted this month by GfK Custom Research North America for the Private Label Manufacturers Association reports that 91% of shoppers say they will keep buying store brand products after the recession ends. Conversely, only 8% of the consumer polled said they will stop buying these products.

The quality of store brand products is a big factor in convincing shoppers to keep buying them. The GfK poll found that 9 of every 10 shoppers agree that the store brand products they buy are just as good as, or better than, national brand products.

This positive experience makes shoppers eager for an even greater assortment of store brand products from which to choose. Nearly half of consumers polled said they wanted their supermarket to carry a greater assortment of private label products.
GfK found that the recession is still having a big impact on shoppers:

• More than half (54%) of them say the recession is an important factor in their decision-making and 32% say it is very important.
• Well into the recession, shoppers are still switching to store brands. The poll found that 35% of shoppers are trying store brand products in categories where they had previously only purchased national brand items.
• More than 3 of every 10 shoppers say they are now buying more store brand products than they were a year ago.

These are some of the results included in PLMA's ongoing study, "Store Brands and The Recession," based on GfK's nationwide poll of nearly 800 main household grocery shoppers.

This latest research in the study was co-sponsored by Marketing Management Inc., Ft. Worth, Texas, a sales and marketing company that specializes in store brands.
PLMA has published a series of reports on store brands every five years since the early 1980s. The last was conducted by the Ipsos-MORI organization in 2006.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Foodservice operators should take advantage of the growing number of available qualified staff

There's no question that the struggling economy has wreaked havoc on the restaurant industry. It has also, however, created an invaluable silver lining: nearly unprecedented abundance in the labor pool.

According to Joni Thomas Doolin, Founder and CEO of the HR tracking firm People Report, operators shouldn't expect this boon to last long. But it will give restaurant operators the chance to "get that service-profit chain right"—and build a sustainable competitive advantage in the months and years to come, she told QSR Symposium attendees during her session entitled "Shifting Gears in a Downturn–Best Practices for Today and Tomorrow", held yesterday in Las Colinas, Texas.

"We cannot afford to miss this market," Doolin says. "Unless you were opening restaurants in the '70s and '80s, you've never seen this much talent available." And in the service industry, she says, human talent is an extremely reliable predictor of overall success. 3

The expanded labor pool has already driven positive trends for many People Report client companies. "For the first time in more than a decade, we've seen an increase in termination for the reason of performance, rather than voluntary separation," Doolin says "Managers are taking the time to evaluate performance and drop those employees who simply aren't getting the job done." The results speak for themselves: Companies in which 20 percent of terminations were based on poor performance saw negative comp sales in 2008, while companies with performance-based terminations of 32 percent were able to increase comp sales.

Termination for poor performance is just part of the equation, however. These employees have to be replaced with the best of the best, and this unique window of opportunity is closing fast.

"Sixty percent of the restaurant industry's labor force under 25," Doolin says. "But the percentage of 16 to 24-year-olds entering the workforce continues to decline." At the same time, competition for these employees has increased dramatically—and it's not just other restaurants who want them. "Retailers, healthcare providers and even car manufacturers like Hyundai are all vying for those entry-level workers we've trained so well." According to Doolin, there are three imperatives for making the most of today's market: technology, talent and trust. "Quick service restaurants are already ahead of the curve when it comes to technology in operations," she says. "Now we need to use it to reach out to current and future employees, in a language they understand."

In terms of talent, Doolin urges operators to "work really hard to find the absolute best of what's available. In this market, it's easier than ever to be lazy about this—don't fall into that trap."

Finally, trust. "The idea of trusting a business has really been eviscerated over the past ten years," Doolin says. "But it's the single most important lever we have in this business." When employees trust their organizations—to do the right thing, to keep their promises, both large and small—they stay with their organizations.
"Young people in America have really sent us a message: 'I want to trust. I want to be lead. And I want to be part of something that's bigger than me.' When we give them that, they will drive our businesses, long after the tide turns in the economy."

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Seven in 10 men prefer plain ice cream flavors

Just in time for summer, Mintel releases new findings about three of the hottest food and drink markets: ice cream, coffeehouses and alcoholic beverages. For a media copy of any of these just-published Mintel Oxygen reports, contact press@mintel.com.
Flavor wars: Men and women want different things from (ice cream) relationship

It’s a battle of the sexes in the ice cream aisle as Mintel finds seven in 10 men prefer plain ice cream flavors, like chocolate or vanilla, while 74% of women seek out those containing chocolate or candy bits. Still, each gender seems to enjoy the other’s taste preferences: 66% of women say they also look for plain ice cream, and 63% of men go for jazzed up flavors too.

Fruit flavors don’t bode well for either male or female ice cream-eaters. Less than one in three respondents told Mintel they look for fruit-flavored ice cream.
Coffee dilemma: Americans’ torn between Starbucks and independents, plain and fancy drinks

The 21st century question — Starbucks or independent? — remains unanswered. Mintel’s latest survey shows people firmly split between the coffee conglomerate and the shop next door. One in five respondents say Starbucks is their favorite, but another one in five choose an independent.

America remains equally undecided on its preferred coffeehouse drink. Coffee with milk or cream leads in popularity—30% of respondents say they drink it most often—but black coffee, lattes, cappuccino and iced coffees all enjoy near identical favor among respondents.

Toasting basics: Beer the favored alcoholic beverage at restaurants, bars, home
An ice-cold brew beats out swanky cocktails and sophisticated wine in all domains, according to Mintel’s latest survey. More adults report drinking beer at home (46%), in bars (26%) and even in restaurants (27%) than any other alcoholic beverage. Wine is a close second at home and restaurants, while cocktails are the second most common choice at bars.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Fresh ingredients, additional health benefits and more environmentally-friendly packaging should be top priorities

A new study conducted by Ipsos Marketing, Consumer Goods indicates that global consumers have readjusted their priorities regarding food products. Fresher ingredients. Increased health benefits. More environmentally friendly packaging. These are the top priorities global consumers are placing on food companies.

When asked to choose one area on which companies should concentrate most when developing new food products, consumers from around the world suggested that fresh ingredients, additional health benefits, and more environmentally friendly packaging should be top priorities. With this in mind, factors such as improving taste, developing more convenient packaging, developing foods that are totally different, and making food products that are quicker and easier to prepare appear to have a lower priority.

"We are seeing a global consumer movement toward heightened consciousness of health, wellness and environmental factors in their food purchasing decisions," says David Pring, Executive Vice President, Ipsos Marketing, Global Consumer Goods. "These are key developments in the food market, and not just in North America and Europe. We are also seeing that taste, convenience and product difference - aspects that were probably more characteristic of food product drivers towards the end of the last millennium - are taking a back seat in a world now more focused on making a positive impact on freshness and health as well as the sustainability of the planet."

"For food marketers, the challenge is to ensure that innovation platforms are clearly focused on these consumer needs, not merely in developed markets but also in emerging ones that will undoubtedly become increasingly salient in the near future," concludes Pring. "At the same time, Marketers must be careful not to compromise taste, although this should go hand-in-hand with the use of fresh ingredients."

These are the findings from a study conducted by Ipsos Marketing, Consumer Goods via the Ipsos Global @dvisor, an online survey of citizens around the world. Interviews were carried out between October and November 2008. Approximately 1,000 interviews were carried out in each of 18 countries: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey and the U.S.

Where possible, Ipsos online panels were utilized - in cases where this was not possible the survey was administered through carefully vetted partnership alliance panels.

Complimentary access to the data in this report for each of the 18 countries is available upon request from Ipsos Marketing, Consumer Goods.
About Ipsos Marketing

Ipsos Marketing - The Innovation and Brand Research Specialists - is the Ipsos brand for Marketing Research.

Ipsos Marketing operates under a global structure that brings clients unequalled research expertise throughout their innovation and brand development process. Supported by specialized teams, Ipsos Marketing offers in-depth understanding of the drivers of consumer choice and of the marketing challenges faced by our clients. Our experts provide integrated qualitative and quantitative research solutions, as well as advanced modelling and forecasting techniques that include simulations and linkages to in-market data.

Ipsos Marketing is a specialization of Ipsos, a global survey-based market research company that offers expertise in advertising, customer and employee loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research. Ipsos is present in 64 countries, with a leading position in both mature and emerging markets. In 2008, it achieved global revenues of 979.3 million euros, Marketing research contributing to 48% of Ipsos' total global revenues.

Visit www.ipsosmarketing.com to learn more.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.
Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.

In 2008, Ipsos generated global revenues of €979.3 million ($1.34 billion U.S.).

Friday, June 12, 2009

Some 56% of consumers who regularly frequent Starbucks claim they also buy coffee from McDonald's

The global market for aseptically packed products is forecast to climb steeply to 2013 both in terms of pack numbers and volume with strongest growth forecast in Asia, according to a newly published report.

The findings, taken from an industry study entitled “Global Aseptic Packaging” by Zenith International and Warrick Research, projects a sharp increase in aseptic pack numbers – estimated to rise 47 percent from 187bn in 2008 to 265bn by 2013.

Volumes are also likely to see buoyant growth, rising 31 percent from 86bn litres in 2008 to 113bn litres in 2013.

World market by pack type

In 2008, cartons overwhelmingly dominated the market, accounting for almost 75 percent of the total volume. However, the report predicts that over the review period cartons will lose some market share to PET bottles and pouches.

PET bottles accounted for about 12 percent of product volumes, and pouches about 8 percent last year, explained the study. In recent years, the use of both PET bottles and pouches has increased more rapidly, and this will continue so that by 2013 the market share of cartons will have been eroded to around 70 percent.

The main trend in beverages aseptically filled since 2003 has seen the increased use of PET bottles - replacing not only hot filled glass, but also hot filled PET and beverage cartons. This has been particularly strong in West Europe, said the report.
In terms of numbers of white milk packs, the Asian market already accounts for 56 percent of world use. This share is forecast to rise to nearly 70 percent by 2013.
Unit growth in family carton use has been at 3.4% per year, but slower growth of around 3.1% per year is forecast in the period 2009-2013. Portion packs will increase their share of the carton market.

The most rapidly growing application is for plastic pouches, and continued growth of around 15% per year is forecast to 2013. Much of this growth will be in China, although there will be an increased use of the pack type in other developing markets.

Volume breakdown

Volumes have grown annually by over 6 percent since 2003, with Asia achieving the fastest rise at over 13 percent a year. The prospects until 2013 are expected to be broadly similarly with annual growth projected to 5.6 percent. Unsurprisingly, expansion is forecast to be greatest in Asia with increases set to reach 11 percent a year.

In 2008, nearly 36bn litres of beverages were aseptically filled, with West Europe and Asia being the largest markets. Nearly 50% of beverages were hot filled, with nearly 10% using preservatives.

Trends

In 2008, white milk accounted for around 45 percent of aseptic package use, with beverage volume reaching over 40 percent. The period 2003-2008 was characterized by stronger volume growth in the beverage sector compared to usage for white milk.
However, this trend looks set to be reversed up until 2013 as UHT markets continue to expand robustly in developing countries. In contrast, the trend to aseptic filling of beverages in developed markets will be slower than in recent years - but still forecast to grow at over 5 percent per year in the period to 2013, to over 46 billion litres.

Going forward the report said demand is increasing for new aseptic fillers of bottles and plastic pots for added value dairy products, both ambient and chilled. It added that lower total costs of operation and increased system flexibility are the main requirements and benefits of aseptic packaging to filling companies.

Overall interest in the Obamas' restaurant choices is coinciding with an increased awareness of food

At the bustling Pi pizza restaurant in St. Louis, the staff has come up with a new mantra: "It's just pizza!"

Just pizza, and yet still, they marvel, customers are happy to wait well upward of two hours at peak time for a table. That is, ever since news came out that Barack Obama loved this pizza so much during a campaign stop, the owners were invited to recreate it in the White House ovens.

"We tell them it'll be two to four hours, and they say, OK!" says owner Chris Sommers, who traveled on his own dime to prepare the presidential meal in April. "This has been our own private stimulus package."

Pizza from St. Louis, pancakes from Pittsburgh. A juicy burger or a chili half-smoke in D.C., soul food in Chicago. Our new president eats something and the world wants to eat it, too. We've always cared about the words that emerge from a president's lips, but has there ever been such attention to the food that enters them?

"Well, White House cookbooks have always been popular — but no, there's never been this flood of interest before," says Eddie Gehman Kohan, editor of the "Obama Foodorama" blog (subject matter self-explanatory.) She sees a fusion of two potent forces: An escalating interest in food and food policy, and enormous curiosity in anything Obama.

And all this interest may have even more to do with Michelle than Barack. Some polls have shown the first lady is even more popular than her husband, and for all the focus on her fashions and her biceps, she's made food a prime area of interest — especially with her new White House kitchen garden.

"She's brought new and much needed attention to critical food issues," says Kohan. "She's also really raised awareness by describing her family's own journey through bad food habits and into a healthier lifestyle."

Indeed, foodies have no doubt that it was Michelle who chose Blue Hill, a pricey but understated New York restaurant that champions locally grown produce, for the couple's much-discussed "Date Night" at the end of May.

Kohan was out that evening, but when she returned, the Twitter messages were flying: "Are they at Blue Hill?" "Does anyone know for sure?" The next day, she says, her blog got millions of hits.

With all the chatter, and with restaurants often happily revealing Obama menu picks, it's stunning that a central mystery remains: What did the Obamas eat? The restaurant won't spill the (organic) beans, and as for fellow diners, "Everyone gave them space and was too cool to bother them," says Marion Nestle, a professor of nutrition and food studies at New York University who ate at a nearby table.

Cool up to a point, that is. "When they got up, the whole place broke out into spontaneous applause," says Eva Fleischer, who was dining with her husband and friends. "Barack said, 'Hi guys,' and Michelle even touched my friend on her shoulder!"

Not surprisingly, in this Obama Foodorama world, the plates had hardly been cleared before the choice of restaurant itself became a subject of foodie debate.

"Isn't the very predictability of this choice ... ever so slightly disappointing?" wrote New York Times restaurant critic Frank Bruni. It would have been fun, he added, to see the Obamas "reach for something rich, messy, decadent, gluttonous." He suggested fatty lamb ribs, or offal.

"No comment," says Blue Hill chef Dan Barber, who won't say another word about the evening, though he's said to have personally cooked an off-the-menu feast for the Obamas. A noted champion of the farm-to-table movement, Barber speculates that the incredible reaction to the Obamas' food habits has only partly to do with them.

"There's definitely been an increased awareness about issues relating to food," Barber said in a telephone interview. "How food grows, who's growing it and where it's from."

"But now we have an administration that has shown an interest in these issues, and more than just a nod," Barber added. He thinks the Obamas, especially Michelle, could do a lot to help the country move toward a healthier way of eating.

"It's my hope that she can do more for this movement through her support than her husband can do within the political system," Barber said. "Because she's framing it in terms of enjoyment and pleasure. She depoliticizes it."

It's true, though, that food has become more political than ever. One small example: In December, chef and author Alice Waters wrote the Obamas, offering to help select a new White House chef, "a person with integrity and devotion to the ideals of environmentalism, health, and conservation."

That irked former White House chef Walter Scheib, who spent 11 years as top chef, for both the Clintons and the Bushes.

"My problem was that she was calling for the ouster of a talented, skilled individual," he says, referring to his former assistant and current White House chef Cristeta Comerford, who has remained in the job. (She's assisted by a Chicago chef brought in by the Obamas, Sam Kass.)

Scheib, who owns a company called The American Chef and travels the country speaking about his experiences, applauds Waters, though, for advocating for the White House garden, something he always wanted himself but never got past the discussion phase. Still, he says, "In the big picture it's probably at the bottom of the top 100 things President Obama needs to do in this world."

Debate is even taking place over offhand comments Mrs. Obama has made about cooking.

"I don't miss cooking. I'm just fine with other people cooking," she told children in a lighthearted discussion at the White House recently. But to food writer Amanda Hesser, "...the message was unmistakable: that everyday cooking is a chore."

Writing recently on the The New York Times op-ed page, Hesser urged Mrs. Obama to venture back into the kitchen. "Her progress could be our progress," Hesser wrote. "And with those arms, she could out-whisk anyone."

Perhaps it's no shock that with a family as popular and as influential as the Obamas, "a lot of people want their agenda tattooed onto the family," Scheib says. But he urges people to remember that the Obamas are, in the end, pretty much like us.

"People forget: Presidents and first families don't come from Mars," he says. "They eat the food real people eat. The White House is a private home, and they're still a family."

Thursday, June 11, 2009

FDA Says Setton Pistachio Knew about Salmonella

U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) released a report that stated Setton Pistachio of Terra Bella, Calif. received results in October 2008 showing some of its roasted nuts tested positive for Salmonella. Furthermore, the failed to implement proper safety processing measures and continued to ship product for another six months.

CSPI Report Shakes up Sodium Debate

The Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) yesterday released a new report detailing chain restaurant meals with dangerously high levels of sodium and renewed its call on industry and government to lower sodium levels in foods.


CSPI researchers examined 17 chains and found that 85 out of 102 meals had more than a day's worth of sodium, and some had more than four days' worth. CSPI cited the following top offenders:


• Red Lobster’s Admirals' Feast with Caesar salad, creamy lobster topped mashed potato, cheddar bay biscuit and a lemonade—7,106 mg.

• Chili's buffalo chicken fajitas (with tortillas and condiments) and a Dr Pepper—6,916 mg.

• Chili's honey-chipotle ribs with mashed potatoes with gravy, seasonal vegetables, and a Dr Pepper—6,440 mg.

• Olive Garden Tour of Italy (lasagna) with a breadstick, garden fresh salad with house dressing, and a Coca-Cola—6,176 mg.

• Olive Garden chicken parmigiana with a breadstick, garden fresh salad with house dressing and raspberry lemonade—5,735 mg.


"Who knows how many Americans have been pushed prematurely into their graves thanks to sodium levels like those found in Olive Garden, Chili's and Red Lobster?” said CSPI executive director Michael F. Jacobson. "These chains are sabotaging the food supply. They should cut back and give consumers the freedom to decide for themselves how much salt they want."


"More than 70 percent of older Americans have hypertension and are especially vulnerable," said Mel Daly, MD, a geriatrician and medical director of the Subacute Unit at Greater Baltimore Medical Center and an associate professor of medicine at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. "Many elderly eat frequently at these restaurants because of convenience and cost. But the high sodium levels in many of these meals can lead to a spike in blood pressure and even precipitate heart failure in some individuals."

CSPI also rated children’s meals and found high levels of sodium from Red Lobster, Chili’s, KFC, Jack in the Box and Olive Garden kids’ meals.

Sources:

Sales of private label products, though still growing, are tapering off

Since the recession began, private label has become a major threat, biting into food earnings among companies like Kellogg and Kraft. Now, with signs of an economic recovery on the horizon, price increases abating and consumer confidence on the rise, sales of store branded products—though still growing—are tapering off, analysts say.

Data by The Nielsen Co., owner of Brandweek, for instance, shows that private label actually lost a 0.8 unit share point in the food, drug and mass channels during the four weeks ended April 18, compared to the same period a year ago (Wal-Mart sales are included).

Moreover, in a research note published May 29, J.P. Morgan food analyst Terry Bivens wrote that private-label share gains, while up on a year-on-year basis in most categories, “remain relatively steady” rather than growing quickly as they had previously.

At least one food marketer is expressing some relief. In Heinz’s fourth-quarter earnings call last month, CEO Bill Johnson noted: “Private [label’s] growth, while still a major concern, does appear to be easing somewhat, albeit at higher sustained share levels.”

Indeed. While most of the nation’s largest food purveyors aren’t dropping their guard against private label anytime soon, certain socioeconomic and market factors are lessening private label’s menace—if only a bit. The Congressional Budget Office, for instance, now expects an official end to the recession by the second half of 2009—and that’s without the trillion-dollar stimulus.

Though consumer confidence and the economy go hand-in-hand, Matt Arnold, a food analyst at Edward Jones, argued that perception aside, not much has really changed.

“A few months ago, there was so much uncertainty in terms of how bad the economic picture could get…at one point, there was a lot of fear that the bottom could fall out,” he said. At the moment, the economic and financial factors that enable consumers to trade up are still “off the table,” Arnold said, but compared to a few months back, “there is a bit less of a rampant mind-set where the consumers’ wallets are completely shut.” He added:“It’s gotten a lot better in terms of people trading down at all costs.”

Arnold, who also covers Costco and Wal-Mart, said that in reality, retailers’ private label sales are still soaring. (However, Wal-Mart’s first-quarter net sales were down 0.6 percent to $93.5 billion, the company said.) The nation’s largest big-box retailer is simultaneously expanding and reintroducing its Great Value line and just last week announced it was adding 22,000 jobs to coincide with new store openings. Granted, Costco and Wal-Mart aren’t “the entire industry, but they are decent proxies” of the current grocery and merchandise snapshot, Arnold said.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is how soon this relief actually came. “Two to four months ago, there was this concern that private label’s [threat] was going to keep going on and on,” said Christopher Growe of investment banking firm Stifel Nicolaus. The fact that private label lost some of its steam so quickly is actually “a good thing,” the analyst added.

Food analyst Alexia Howard, who covers Kraft, Campbell Soup Co. and Hershey’s at Sanford C. Bernstein, however, poses another theory: Private label’s uptick has no direct correlation with economic circumstances, though consumers may be more prone to trade down in times of financial duress. Instead, much of private label’s gains stem from “sticker shock” to rapid and sudden food price increases. And, with price growth slowing down, many economically stressed consumers are now returning to branded goods, Howard said.